PREDICTIONS
The Gap
Where prediction markets and bookies disagree — and by how much. Live odds from the books, live prices from Polymarket, vig stripped, compared side by side.
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BIGGEST GAPS RIGHT NOWCAPTURED 20 JUL
UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Ankalaev, Magomed vs Guskov, Bogdan
Ankalaev, Magomed to win — Polymarket 82.2% · best book implies 78.4%
Prices: 1.20 Duelbits · 1.18 Stake · 1.18 BC.Game · 1.18 Roobet — crowd fair price 1.22
+3.8pp
Best price at Duelbits →UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Erceg, Steve vs Temirov, Ramazonbek
Temirov, Ramazonbek to win — Polymarket 49.5% · best book implies 45.8%
Prices: 2.06 Duelbits · 1.90 BC.Game · 1.90 Roobet — crowd fair price 2.02
+3.7pp
Best price at Duelbits →UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Kuniev, Rizvan vs Fortune, Tyrell
Kuniev, Rizvan to win — Polymarket 72.6% · best book implies 69.2%
Prices: 1.38 Duelbits · 1.36 Stake · 1.32 BC.Game · 1.32 Roobet — crowd fair price 1.38
+3.4pp
Best price at Duelbits →UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Walker, Valter vs Petersen, Thomas
Walker, Valter to win — Polymarket 64.4% · best book implies 61.4%
Prices: 1.55 Stake · 1.52 Duelbits · 1.46 BC.Game · 1.46 Roobet — crowd fair price 1.55
+2.9pp
Best price at Stake →UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Zaynukov, Magomed vs Rzepecki, Damian
Zaynukov, Magomed to win — Polymarket 75.5% · best book implies 73.4%
Prices: 1.27 BC.Game · 1.27 Roobet · 1.25 Duelbits — crowd fair price 1.32
+2.1pp
Best price at BC.Game →UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Bonfim, Ismael vs Sola, Axel
Bonfim, Ismael to win — Polymarket 38.2% · best book implies 36.3%
Prices: 2.60 Duelbits · 2.55 Stake · 2.45 BC.Game · 2.45 Roobet — crowd fair price 2.62
UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Tuchalov, Magomed vs Ribeiro, Brendson
Tuchalov, Magomed to win — Polymarket 85.1% · best book implies 83.6%
+1.6pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Aliev, Nurullo vs Davis, Mike
Aliev, Nurullo to win — Polymarket 61.4% · best book implies 59.8%
+1.5pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Dulatov, Islam vs Turman, Wellington
Turman, Wellington to win — Polymarket 15.7% · best book implies 14.4%
+1.3pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 25 JUL
Ponzinibbio, Santiago vs Patterson, Sam
Ponzinibbio, Santiago to win — Polymarket 23.8% · best book implies 23.1%
+0.7pp
No edge — skip
Gaps under ±2pp are noise, not signal. We show them so you can see we're not hiding the boring truth.
THE GAP · WEEKLY DIGEST
The Gap #8: the book and the crowd disagree on Ankalaev, Magomed vs Guskov, Bogdan
Biggest gap this week: Ankalaev, Magomed to win — Polymarket 82.2% vs Duelbits 78.4% (3.8pp).
Sergio T. · 20 July 2026
The Gap #7: the book and the crowd disagree on Cannonier, Jared vs Duncan, Christian
Biggest gap this week: Duncan, Christian to win — Polymarket 76.2% vs BC.Game 72.9% (3.3pp).
Sergio T. · 13 July 2026
The Gap #6: the book and the crowd disagree on Krylov, Nikita vs Whittaker, Robert
Biggest gap this week: Whittaker, Robert to win — Polymarket 57.4% vs Roobet 39.7% (17.7pp).
Sergio T. · 6 July 2026
HOW WE COUNT
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (the vig), so raw implied probabilities always add up to more than 100%. We strip it proportionally before comparing — otherwise every market would look like a fake gap. Polymarket prices are what traders actually pay. Both sides timestamped at capture. Odds move — the price you see at the book is the price that counts. See the markets on Polymarket.