PREDICTIONS
The Gap
Where prediction markets and bookies disagree — and by how much. Live odds from the books, live prices from Polymarket, vig stripped, compared side by side.
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BIGGEST GAPS RIGHT NOWCAPTURED 8 JUN
UFC / MMA · 15 JUN
O'Malley, Sean vs Zahabi, Aiemann
Zahabi, Aiemann to win — Polymarket 24.5% · best book implies 21.3%
Prices: 4.50 Stake · 4.40 Duelbits · 3.85 BC.Game · 3.85 Roobet — crowd fair price 4.08
+3.2pp
Best price at Stake →WORLD CUP · 21 JUN
Tunisia vs Japan
Japan to win — Polymarket 55.3% · best book implies 52.4%
Prices: 1.81 Roobet · 1.78 BC.Game · 1.77 Stake · 1.72 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 1.81
WORLD CUP · 20 JUN
Brazil vs Haiti
Brazil to win — Polymarket 90.4% · best book implies 87.6%
Prices: 1.08 Roobet · 1.07 Stake · 1.07 BC.Game · 1.06 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 1.11
+2.8pp
Best price at Roobet →UFC / MMA · 15 JUN
Nickal, Bo vs Daukaus, Kyle
Daukaus, Kyle to win — Polymarket 27.4% · best book implies 24.7%
Prices: 3.90 Stake · 3.80 Duelbits · 3.30 BC.Game · 3.30 Roobet — crowd fair price 3.64
+2.7pp
Best price at Stake →WORLD CUP · 15 JUN
Spain vs Cape Verde
Spain to win — Polymarket 89.5% · best book implies 86.9%
Prices: 1.10 Duelbits · 1.09 Stake · 1.09 Roobet · 1.08 BC.Game · 1.06 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 1.12
+2.6pp
Best price at Duelbits →WORLD CUP · 19 JUN
Scotland vs Morocco
Morocco to win — Polymarket 49.5% · best book implies 47%
Prices: 2.02 Roobet · 1.99 Stake · 1.98 BC.Game · 1.94 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 2.02
+2.5pp
Best price at Roobet →UFC / MMA · 15 JUN
Ruffy, Mauricio vs Chandler, Michael
Chandler, Michael to win — Polymarket 17.5% · best book implies 15%
Prices: 6.40 Stake · 6.20 Duelbits · 5.00 BC.Game · 5.00 Roobet — crowd fair price 5.72
+2.5pp
Best price at Stake →WORLD CUP · 13 JUN
Qatar vs Switzerland
Switzerland to win — Polymarket 79.3% · best book implies 76.9%
Prices: 1.23 BC.Game · 1.23 Roobet · 1.22 Stake · 1.22 Cloudbet · 1.22 Duelbits — crowd fair price 1.26
+2.4pp
Best price at BC.Game →WORLD CUP · 14 JUN
Germany vs Curacao
Germany to win — Polymarket 93.7% · best book implies 91.4%
Prices: 1.03 BC.Game · 1.03 Roobet · 1.02 Stake · 1.02 Duelbits — crowd fair price 1.07
+2.4pp
Best price at BC.Game →WORLD CUP · 18 JUN
Canada vs Qatar
Canada to win — Polymarket 73.5% · best book implies 71.2%
Prices: 1.33 Roobet · 1.32 Stake · 1.32 BC.Game · 1.28 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 1.36
+2.3pp
Best price at Roobet →WORLD CUP · 21 JUN
Spain vs Saudi Arabia
Spain to win — Polymarket 87.3% · best book implies 85%
Prices: 1.11 Stake · 1.11 Roobet · 1.10 BC.Game · 1.08 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 1.15
+2.3pp
Best price at Stake →WORLD CUP · 22 JUN
France vs Iraq
France to win — Polymarket 86.3% · best book implies 84.3%
Prices: 1.13 Roobet · 1.12 Stake · 1.12 BC.Game · 1.10 Cloudbet — crowd fair price 1.16
Gaps under ±2pp are noise, not signal. We show them so you can see we're not hiding the boring truth.
THE GAP · WEEKLY DIGEST
The Gap #2: the book and the crowd disagree on O'Malley, Sean vs Zahabi, Aiemann
Biggest gap this week: Zahabi, Aiemann to win — Polymarket 24.5% vs Stake 21.3% (3.2pp).
Sergio T. · 8 June 2026
The Gap #1: the book and the crowd disagree on Ruffy, Mauricio vs Chandler, Michael
Biggest gap this week: Chandler, Michael to win — Polymarket 17.6% vs Stake 14% (3.6pp).
Sergio T. · 7 June 2026
HOW WE COUNT
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (the vig), so raw implied probabilities always add up to more than 100%. We strip it proportionally before comparing — otherwise every market would look like a fake gap. Polymarket prices are what traders actually pay. Both sides timestamped at capture. Odds move — the price you see at the book is the price that counts. See the markets on Polymarket.