PREDICTIONS
The Gap
Where prediction markets and bookies disagree — and by how much. Live odds from the books, live prices from Polymarket, vig stripped, compared side by side.
BonusCheckr earns commission from some operator links. The numbers don't care.
BIGGEST GAPS RIGHT NOWCAPTURED 17 AUG · 24 DAYS OLD
UFC / MMA · 18 AUG
Lorenz, Alik vs Aly, Mohamed
Lorenz, Alik to win — Polymarket 29.7% · best book implies 27.1%
Prices: 3.52 Cloudbet · 3.35 Stake · 3.25 Duelbits · 3.05 BC.Game · 3.05 Roobet — crowd fair price 3.37
+2.6pp
Best price at Cloudbet →UFC / MMA · 18 AUG
Puga, Roman vs Trembley, Taner
Puga, Roman to win — Polymarket 60.4% · best book implies 57.8%
Prices: 1.65 Cloudbet · 1.61 Stake · 1.61 BC.Game · 1.61 Roobet · 1.59 Duelbits — crowd fair price 1.66
+2.6pp
Best price at Cloudbet →UFC / MMA · 22 AUG
Chatman, Terrance vs Wint, Anthony
Chatman, Terrance to win — Polymarket 11.5% · best book implies 14%
Prices: 6.80 Stake · 6.50 BC.Game · 6.50 Roobet — crowd fair price 8.67
-2.5pp
Best price at Stake →UFC / MMA · 29 AUG
Nurmagomedov, Umar vs Song, Yadong
Nurmagomedov, Umar to win — Polymarket 80.2% · best book implies 77.8%
Prices: 1.20 BC.Game · 1.20 Roobet · 1.17 Stake · 1.17 Duelbits — crowd fair price 1.25
+2.4pp
Best price at BC.Game →UFC / MMA · 23 AUG
Mederos, Marquel vs Jones, Mason
Jones, Mason to win — Polymarket 70.3% · best book implies 68.8%
+1.5pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 22 AUG
Barbosa, Marcio vs Kuse, Ryan
Kuse, Ryan to win — Polymarket 12.9% · best book implies 14%
-1.2pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 22 AUG
Emmers, Jamall vs Douglas, Lerryan
Douglas, Lerryan to win — Polymarket 76.2% · best book implies 75.2%
+1pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 22 AUG
Padilla, Christopher vs Haqparast, Nasrat
Padilla, Christopher to win — Polymarket 50.5% · best book implies 49.6%
+0.9pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 19 AUG
Fazil, Namo vs Brito, Kaik
Fazil, Namo to win — Polymarket 57.4% · best book implies 56.6%
+0.8pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 22 AUG
Dyer, Shanelle vs Reed, Elise
Dyer, Shanelle to win — Polymarket 84.2% · best book implies 83.6%
+0.6pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 23 AUG
Hernandez, Anthony vs Rodrigues, Gregory
Hernandez, Anthony to win — Polymarket 60.4% · best book implies 59.9%
+0.5pp
No edge — skip
UFC / MMA · 23 AUG
Spivac, Serghei vs Petrino, Vitor
Spivac, Serghei to win — Polymarket 40.6% · best book implies 40.2%
+0.4pp
No edge — skip
Gaps under ±2pp are noise, not signal. We show them so you can see we're not hiding the boring truth.
THE GAP · WEEKLY DIGEST
The Gap #12: the book and the crowd disagree on Puga, Roman vs Trembley, Taner
Biggest gap this week: Puga, Roman to win — Polymarket 60.4% vs Cloudbet 57.8% (2.6pp).
Sergio T. · 17 August 2026
The Gap #11: the book and the crowd disagree on Escarrega, Fabrizio vs Alsaghir, Abe
Biggest gap this week: Escarrega, Fabrizio to win — Polymarket 59.8% vs Cloudbet 52.9% (6.9pp).
Sergio T. · 10 August 2026
The Gap #10: the book and the crowd disagree on Miller, Ty Cole vs Goff, Billy
Biggest gap this week: Miller, Ty Cole to win — Polymarket 75.5% vs BC.Game 72.9% (2.6pp).
Sergio T. · 3 August 2026
HOW WE COUNT
Bookmaker odds include a built-in margin (the vig), so raw implied probabilities always add up to more than 100%. We strip it proportionally before comparing — otherwise every market would look like a fake gap. Polymarket prices are what traders actually pay. Both sides timestamped at capture. Odds move — the price you see at the book is the price that counts. See the markets on Polymarket.